letter to Chiranjeevi
am a big fan of yours and I was perturbed by the bad name
Tagore attracted. Despite being an Industry hit, many consider
it as nothing more than average.
reason why it happened is as follows.
population is 7 crores. Out of this, small kids - those who
do not watch movies or pay for it - below 5 years of age -
will be around 50 lakhs. Also Old people - people above 65
years of age - who are most unlikely to watch movies will
be around 50 lakhs. In nizam alone Urdu speaking muslim populace
might be around 40lakhs and other states population would
be around 30 lakhs. Tribals, People living in remote villages
cut of from amenities, people below the poverty line who cannot
afford to watch movies together will add up to a crore. People
who do not watch movies in theaters will easily add up to
a crore. In my own immediate family and friends circle, I
know at least 10 people who do not go to theaters to watch
movies (some of them do watch in TV) - And I live in Hyderabad.
the total number of people watching movies will only be 3.3
crores. Out of this, there will be about 50 lakhs who will
watch the movie only when the movie gets released in small
small towns and villages. Movies get released in such places
only after the 150 days runs in the main centerers. Movies
do not get much share in such places. Its great if you get
2-3 crores in such places. Therefore, people who watch the
movies in main centerers in the first 150 days would be around
2.6-2.7 crores.Out of these people, there will be repeat viewers.
Adding this repeat viewership, my estimate is that there will
be about 3.5-3.6 crores movie viewership in the first 150
days of a movie release.
the current ticket rates, telugu cinema capacity is 35 + 2.5
= 37.5 crores. I am saying this because Tagore was predicted
by magazines and websites to be achieving this figure. Even
for Indra 35 crores were predicted - There is a prediction
difference of 2.5 crores between the two movies - this can
be attributed to hike in ticket rates as there is a one year
gap in between them. Out of this 35 crores come in straight
release centerers in the first 150 days, the remaining 2.5
crores come when the movie is release in villages.
we come to theaters.
the average seating capacity at 700 - some might be more,
some might be less.
Per Day 4 shows - 2,800. Per week - roughly - 20000 (twenty
thousand seating capacity).
Tagore was released in 500 theaters. Tagore was reported to
have done very very well in the first 4 weeks, there was some
decline in 5th week, and there were reports that the decline
was steep in the 6th week. Let us take collections of 100%
in first week, 90% in 2nd and 3rd weeks, 80% in 4th week,
50% in 5th week.
week - 500 theaters - 100% collections - total viewership
= 20000 * 500 = 1crore.
2nd week - 300 theaters - 90% collections - total viewership
= 20000 * .9 * 300 = 54 lacs.
3rd week - 300 theaters - 90% collections - total viewership
= 20000 * .9 * 300 = 54 lacs.
4th week - 270 theaters - 80% collections - total viewership
= 20000 * .8 * 270 = 43 lacs.
5th week - 270 theaters - 60% collections - total viewership
= 20000 * .5 * 270 = 27 lacs.
So in 3 weeks the viewership was - 1 + .54 + .54 = 2.08 crores
which is 60% of the total viewership of 3.5 crores. which
means 60% of the collections - 60% of 35 crores = 21 crores
which is what all the magazines and websites have reported.
5 weeks, Tagore got 2.8 crores viewership which is 80% of
the total viewership. therefore collections are 80% of 35
which is 28 crores.
got 28 crores collections in 5 weeks. I dont think any movie
in any language in the world would have acheived 80% of the
target viewership in 5 weeks. In that sense Tagore is one
of the biggest hits in the history of world cinema.
remaining viewership left is just 20% - 70 lakhs - which is
1 week housefull collection for 350 centres. With this just
this much in hand, you cannot run the movie in 250 centres.
This is the reason why collections have dropped drastically
from 6th week onwards - probable less than 25% from 6th week.
You can easily see that the movie should have been run in
80 centres in the 6th and 7th weeks and 50 centres at the
most after 50th day. Had this been done, the movie would have
collected 35 crores and a long run share of 37.5 crores as
predicted by websites and magazines.
the movie is run in 200 centres for 100 days. Taking Rs.10000
average rent and taxes per day for theatre, running the movie
in 150 extra centres for 65 days would cost you Rs.10 crores.
Instead of getting 37.5 the movie ends up 10 crores less.
Not only that, it gets a lot of bad name and many consider
it as nothing more than an average movie of 20 crores as the
collections have dropped from 6th week itself.
is actually happening is that people admire you so much that
they cannot wait to watch your movie once it is released.
By the 50th day, 90% of the viewing public your movie with
some of them watching it as many times as they want. As a
result,there is hardly anybody left to watch it after the
50th day. This does not happen for other heroes.
other heroes, some watch 50 days after the release, some watch
after 70 days, some watch after 100 days and so on. That's
why their movies run for even 175 days. However, for you,hardly
anybody remains without watching your movie by the 50th day.
In future running your movies even for 80 days would be difficult.
You should be aware of this. You cannot compete with other
heroes on centres basis. Instead, I believe you should ensure
that all of 37.5 crores should be collected and openly claimed.
This will attract 2 or 3 extra crores of tax. This would be
much less than the 10 crores spent for Tagore on dragging.
The records will be authentic and your reputation will soar.
sincerely hope that Shankar dada will be the first movie to
collect 40 crores and I sincerely hope that the whole of Andhra
knows it and appreciates it.
for a patient hearing.
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